While you may see signs the powers of the mighty Self Assured are fading and a new order coming to open class racing,don’t start counting him out just yet.
He will be missing in the NZ Cup this year after an unusually lacklustre run in the Kaikoura Cup but there are stats to back up a recent Mark comment that it doesn’t mean he won’t bounce back
Discussing his Ashburton Flying Stakes 4th after getting the run of the race Mark made the rther surprising observation that “Jimmy” often didn’t seem to hit his peak until summer and autumn racing.
“It seems around about the Auckland meeting in December that he really comes to his best. So hopefully that can happen again this year”
It seems slightly ludicrous to suggest Self Assured is not at his most elite form level in November. He has won a NZ Cup and a Free For All and run second in both races But Mark may have a point.
Over several Cup campaigns the only two wins posted by Self Assured in November have been those two,the Cup of 2020 and the Free for All of 2022.Of course being the horse he is he has run other outstanding races at the carnival but for minor placings.Obviously when set for those features it is a lesser record than you might expect given his class and record.
Still many of his 31 defeats have come through spring racing,while more than half of his wins In New Zealand have come through the later summer months and the percentage is much higher when you isolate the number of top class races involved . Also of note is that most of his rare unplaced runs have occurred in the spring
It must be borne in mind what other months he has been set to peak. For example his most successful month is ,rather weirdly,July, with a string of wins on his first campaign to Queensland as a three year old where he announced his arrival as a pacing star. He won 5 races in two July campaigns in Australia.
Maybe after 61 outings (Lazarus 56; Adore Me 36;Il Vicolo and Auckland Reactor 53 among stable stars with full careers) Jimmy’s powers could be on the wane.A length is a huge margin in elite racing. After all the great performances over many years it would hardly be a surprise if he had lost one.
But don’t be too hasty. As the old song used to say. “Here Comes Summer”.